Neman dankalin turawa na Outlook

Dankali shine babban kayan lambu a Indiya. A halin yanzu ana cinye yawancin dankalin gida a matsayin sabo (68%) sannan a sarrafa (7.5%) da iri (8.5%). Sauran kashi 16% na dankalin turawa ana asarar su saboda asarar girbi bayan girbi. Koyaya, ana tsammanin adadin dankalin da aka yi amfani da shi/ɓatacce saboda dalilai daban-daban zai canza a yanayin matsakaici da na dogon lokaci.

Dankali mai sabo

Yawan cin sabbin dankalin turawa (FAOSTAT) ya karu daga 1991 zuwa 2010 a ACGR na 2.34. Shin wannan amfani zai tashi nan gaba daidai gwargwado? Haɓaka haɓakar haɓakar yawan amfanin hatsi, babban sikelin karkatar da hatsin abinci don ciyarwa & man fetur da ake sa ran hauhawar yawan amfanin yau da kullun, mai, 'ya'yan itatuwa, kayan marmari, madara, sukari da abinci marasa cin ganyayyaki a cikin tsarin mulki. Yawan karuwar yawan jama'a ya zama dole ya matsa lamba kan filayen noma da ake nomawa. Tun da, ana sa ran ƙasar noma za ta ci gaba da kasancewa ko kaɗan a cikin shekaru 40 masu zuwa, rawar da amfanin gona kamar dankalin turawa ke da mafi girma a kowace ƙasa da lokaci zai zama wajibi. A cikin wannan mahallin amfanin gonakin dankalin turawa yana da babban yuwuwar ba da muhimmiyar gudummawa ga ajandar samar da abinci ta ƙasa nan gaba.

Canje-canjen da ake ganin a cikin zamantakewar tattalin arzikin Indiya a cikin matsakaita da na dogon lokaci ana sa ran zai haɓaka cin abinci kowane ɗan adam na dankalin turawa. Dankali muhimmin sashi ne na yawancin abinci mai sauri a cikin tsari da kuma sassan da ba a tsara ba. Girman yawan jama'ar birane cikin sauri daga 375 zuwa miliyan 840 a cikin shekaru 40 masu zuwa a ACGR na 2.04% ana sa ran idan aka kwatanta da jimillar ACGR na ƙasa da kashi 0.78%. Haɓaka haɓakar adadin iyalai na nukiliya, mafi girman kuɗin da za a iya zubarwa saboda saurin haɓakar tattalin arziƙin da ke haifar da haɓakar cin abinci a gida da saurin haɓaka yawan mata masu aiki a matsakaici da kuma dogon lokaci ana tsammanin za su ci gaba da ci gaba da haɓaka ACGR gabaɗaya. na 2.265% a cikin kowane mutum amfani da sabo dankali. Bukatar abinci kowane mutum na sabbin dankali a wannan ACGR zai zama kilogiram 48.5 a cikin dogon lokaci (Table 1). Madaidaicin buƙatun abinci na ƙasa don sabbin dankali zai zama t miliyan 78.5 a cikin 2050.

Sarrafa Ingantattun Dankali

Table 1 Kowane mutum da jimillar buƙatun abinci na ƙasa don sabbin dankali

Items	2010	2020	2030	2040	2050
Kowane mutum sabo (kg)	19.78	23.70	29.16	37.12	48.47
Bukatar ƙasa (miliyan t)	23.94	30.84	40.82	55.89	78.47

Bangaren sarrafa Agri yana samun saurin girma sosai lokacin da tattalin arziƙin ya canza daga bunƙasa zuwa tattalin arziƙin da ya ci gaba. Haɓakar tattalin arzikin Indiya daga dala 1.57 zuwa tsakanin tiriliyan 13 zuwa 34 (a ƙarƙashin yanayi iri-iri; kiyasin NCAP) ba zai yiwu ba tare da haɓakar masana'antar sarrafa kayan gona. Bugu da ari, dankalin turawa koyaushe shine kan gaba yayin da muka ɗauki sarrafa kayan amfanin gona cikin la'akari. Binciken ƙwarewar da aka yi a baya da tsarin masana'antar sarrafa Indiya ya nuna cewa buƙatar sarrafa dankalin turawa a cikin shekaru 40 masu zuwa zai tashi cikin sauri mafi sauri don fries na Faransa (11.6% ACGR) sannan kuma flakes / foda (7.6%) da kwakwalwan dankalin turawa (4.5) %). Ainihin buƙatar sarrafa dankali zai tashi daga 2.8 t a cikin 2010 zuwa t miliyan 25 a cikin shekarar 2050 a ACGR na 5.61% (Table 2).

Table 2 Bukatar albarkatun kasa na masana'antar sarrafa dankalin turawa (miliyan t)

Samfura(s)	2010	2020	2030	2040	2050
Dankalin turawa	2.45	5.59	9.09	12.06	14.22
Dankali flakes/foda	0.29	0.89	1.99	3.58	5.44
Daskararre kayayyakin dankalin turawa	0.06	0.30	1.03	2.64	5.40
Jimlar	2.80	6.78	12.11	18.28	25.06

Masana'antar yin sitaci na dankalin turawa ba ta wanzu a Indiya kuma makomarta tana da wahalar hangowa saboda ɗan gajeren lokacin noman dankalin turawa na cikin gida, abubuwan da ba a sani ba a nan gaba a masana'antar sitacin dankalin turawa na Sin da Tarayyar Turai (mafi yawan 'yan wasan duniya) da kuma yiwuwar kasafi da ƙari. ƙasar noma zuwa zaɓuɓɓukan tsaro na abinci maimakon samfuran masana'antu. Duk da haka, idan an yi amfani da wasu nau'in dankalin turawa don yin sitaci dankalin turawa ko wasu kayayyakin masana'antu, to wannan buƙatar ba a ƙididdige shi ba kuma zai wuce fiye da yadda aka kiyasta.

Madaidaicin jimlar buƙatun da kowane mutum na ainihin samfuran dankalin turawa da aka sarrafa a matakin yanzu da kuma nan gaba ana nuna su a cikin tebur 3. Jimlar buƙatun sarrafa An kiyasta cewa kayayyakin dankalin turawa za su haura daga miliyan 0.7 a shekarar 2010 zuwa t miliyan 7.3 a shekarar 2050. Matsakaicin bukatar kowane mutum na kayayyakin dankalin turawa zai karu daga 0.6 zuwa 4.5 kg (6.03% ACGR) a cikin shekaru 40.

Irin Dankali

Table 3 Bukatar kayayyakin dankalin turawa (dubu t)

		Dankali Chips	Dankali flakes/ foda	Dankali flakes/ foda	Jimlar
2010	Dubu t	612	52	34	698
	Kowane mutum g	506	43	28	577
2020	Dubu t	1398	160	168	1726
	Kowane mutum g	1080	124	130	1334
2030	Dubu t	2273	358	556	3187
	Kowane mutum g	1630	257	399	2286
2040	Dubu t	3015	644	1412	5071
	Kowane mutum g	2007	429	940	3376
2050	Dubu t	3555	979	2808	7342
	Kowane mutum g	2194	604	1733	4532

Dangane da FAOSTAT, Indiya ta yi amfani da tubers na dankalin turawa miliyan 2.96 (8.5% na noman dankalin turawa na kasa) a matsayin iri a cikin karshen shekarar 2010. Cikakken adadin dankalin da aka yi amfani da shi azaman iri an kiyasta ya karu zuwa miliyan 6.1 t a shekarar 2050. Duk da haka adadin dankalin turawa. tubers da aka yi amfani da su azaman iri za su faɗi zuwa kashi 5 cikin ɗari na noman dankalin turawa a cikin 2050, saboda hasashen da ake sa ran zai yi girma.

Asarar bayan girbi

A halin yanzu mafi girman adadin dankalin turawa (16%) yana lalacewa azaman asarar bayan girbi (PHLs) fiye da wanda ake amfani dashi azaman iri (8.5%) ko sarrafa (7.5%). Wannan lamari ne mai ban tausayi cewa kusan t miliyan 1 fiye da adadin dankalin da aka noma a Kanada a lokacin ƙarshen triennium na 2010 (FAOSTAT) ya lalace a Indiya. Ko da yake, saboda yanayin zafi na lokacin rani, rashin kayan aikin sanyi na zamani, da yawan jigilar dankalin turawa daga jihohin arewa zuwa kudanci ne ke haifar da yawaitar asarar dankalin a kwata-kwata, adadin PHL ya kai adadin dankalin da ake nomawa. ana nufin kasar ta kasance kasa. Kimanin PHLs ana niyya don raguwa daga 15.75 na yanzu zuwa 10% a cikin shekara ta 2050, yayin da aka kiyasta adadin PHLs a kusan 5.5 (a halin yanzu), da 12 miliyan t (a cikin 2050).

Export

Matsakaicin matsakaiciyar shekara-shekara na fitar da dankalin turawa na Indiya sama da shekaru goma da suka gabata ya ragu ko ƙasa da t 0.1 miliyan. Dankali kasancewar ɗan-lalata ne kuma ƙaƙƙarfan kayan amfanin gona, fitar da shi daga Indiya ba ya jagoranci ta hanyar tallafin manufofin dogon lokaci. Da yake dankalin turawa amfanin gona ne mai kula da siyasa, ana ɗaukar matakan da aka yi niyya don kiyaye farashin sayayya a matakin araha ga talakawa masu amfani. Fitarwa gabaɗaya kayan aikin sarrafa rikici ne a cikin shekarun da aka yi fiye da kima. Koyaya, a cikin kasuwannin duniya ana iya haɓaka fitar da kayayyaki kawai ta hanyar gina sahihanci da yin kwangiloli na dogon lokaci. Ana sa ran cewa manufofin abinci na gaba za su fi mai da hankali kan tabbatar da tsaron abinci na kasa da kuma rage darajar fitar da kayayyakin amfanin gona na iya karaya. A karkashin wannan yanayi, hauhawar farashin dankalin turawa daga kasar ba zai yuwu ba. Indiya kasancewarta mai yawan noman dankali ana sa ran ci gaban lafiya a cikin samfuran dankalin turawa. Koyaya, abubuwan da ba a sani ba kuma masu sarƙaƙiyar ci gaba a matakin ƙasa da ƙasa suna da wahalar tantancewa. Bugu da ƙari, idan babu wani tabbataccen yanke tallafi ta hanyar ingantaccen manufofin fitarwa ba zai yiwu a ƙididdigewa da sanya maƙasudin gaba don fitar da kayayyakin dankalin turawa da aka sarrafa ba.

Sauran amfani

A halin yanzu ba ma ciyar da dankali ga dabbobi don haka ba za a iya yin kiyasin yin amfani da shi nan gaba ba. Koyaya, idan an yi amfani da ɗan adadin dankali azaman abincin dabbobi to zai wuce sama da ƙiyasin buƙatun gabaɗaya.

Jimlar Buƙatar Dankali

Bukatar dankali a Indiya an kiyasta ya haura zuwa miliyan 122 t a cikin shekara ta 2050. Buƙatar sarrafa dankalin turawa zai karu a mafi girma kuma adadin su a cikin kayan abinci na cikin gida zai tashi daga 7.5% a cikin triennium da ke ƙarewa 2010 matsakaita zuwa 20.5% a cikin 2050 (Table 4). Idan akai la'akari da net gida wadata da rabo dankali

Table 4 Bukatar dankalin turawa mai hikima (miliyan t)

shekara	Neman $	Fresh	Processing	Seed	vata
2010	35.23	23.94	2.8	2.96	5.53
	(100	(68.21	(7.61	(8.43	(15.75
2020	47.91	30.84	6.78	3.55	6.74
	(100	(64.37	(14.15	(7.41	(14.07
2030	65.39	40.82	12.11	4.25	8.21
	(100	(62.43	(18.52	(6.5	(12.56
2040	89.26	55.89	18.28	5.09	10
	(100	(62.61	(20.48	(5.7	(11.2
2050	121.81	78.47	25.06	6.1	12.18
	(100	(64.42	(20.57	(5.01	(10

Lura: Figures a cikin ƙididdiga sune kaso; $: buƙatun gida da aka yi wa iri da almubazzaranci saboda asarar bayan girbi zai ragu sannu a hankali nan gaba. Haɓaka ƙaƙƙarfan amfani da dankalin turawa don aikin sarrafawa zai ɗan rage yawan amfanin dankalin turawa a matsayin abinci nan da 2050.