Bloomberg: Kasuwannin taki sun mamaye ta Belarus potash Force majeure

Wani mai hakar ma'adinin Potash dan kasar Belarus wanda ke da tarin yawan wadatar kayayyaki a duniya ya ayyana karfin ikonsa, inda ya girgiza kasuwar da tuni ta yi fama da tashin gwauron zabi.

JSC Belaruskali ta fada a ranar 16 ga Fabrairu cewa ba za ta iya cika kwangilolin ta ba, a cewar wata wasika daga mai fitar da kayayyaki zuwa abokan ciniki da Bloomberg ta gani. Takunkumin Amurka da na Turai ma ya haifar da dakatar da jigilar kayayyaki.

Rashin kayayyakin Belarusiya zai sami babban sakamako. Potash shine babban sinadari mai mahimmanci ga manyan kayan amfanin gona kamar masara da waken soya, da kuma abin da ake samarwa. Tuni dai farashin taki ya yi tashin gwauron zabo yayin da hauhawar farashin iskar gas ya tilastawa wasu tsire-tsire na Turai dakatarwa ko rage yawan hakowa, kuma farashin da Amurka ke sayar da sinadarin Potash a yankin masara ya kusan rubanya a bara. Taki mai tsada yana sa abinci ya fi tsada don samarwa da kuma ba da gudummawa ga hauhawar hauhawar farashin kayayyaki a duniya ga masu amfani.

Alexis Maxwell, wani manazarci Green Markets, wani kamfani mallakar Bloomberg, ya ce a cikin imel, "kwangilolin potash na duniya sun daidaita akan farashi mafi girma tun 2008, yana tabbatar da wata shekara ta kayan aiki masu tsada ga manoma da kuma samun riba mai karfi ga masu samarwa." "Takunkumin da Amurka ta kakaba wa Belarus ya kawar da babban mai fafatawa" ba tare da wani madadin mai sayarwa ba.

• Kara karantawa: Takunkumin Potash na Amurka na iya jefa Belarus Zurfafa cikin Makamin Putin

Belarus tana fitar da kusan tan miliyan 10-12 a kowace shekara, bisa ga bayanan Kasuwannin Green. Kasar tana da kusan kashi biyar na wadatar duniya. Babban mai jigilar kayayyaki ne zuwa Brazil, da Indiya da China.

Takunkumin da Amurka ta kakaba wa Belaruskali OAO, mai hakar ma'adinin potash daya tilo a Belarus, ya fara aiki ne a ranar 8 ga watan Disamba, yayin da hukunci kan Kamfanin Potash na Belarus, wanda ke fitar da dukkan sinadarin Potash daga kasar, ya kamata ya fara aiki a ranar 1 ga Afrilu.

Takunkumin na iya haifar da sauye-sauyen kasuwancin kasuwanci da wasu bukatu, in ji Babban Jami'in Riko na Nutrien Ltd. Ken Seitz a wata hira. Abokan ciniki waɗanda suka sayi tarihi daga Belarus suna ƙoƙarin tabbatar da kayayyaki a wani wuri. Misali, Rasha tana ninka yawan takin da ake baiwa Brazil, in ji shugaban Brazil Jair Bolsonaro yayin wata hira da gidan rediyon Jovem Pan Alhamis.

Nutrien yana da ƙarin rabin tan miliyan na iya aiki wanda zai kasance a ƙarshen rabin 2022 idan an buƙata, in ji Seitz. Rikicin masu noma yana da ƙarfi, don haka hauhawar farashin potash ba zai haifar da ƙarancin buƙata ba.

Kamfanin kuma zai iya haɓaka fitar da sinadarin potassium, amma da farko, zai buƙaci ganin dogon tasiri a kasuwa na "shekaru" don kawo ƙarin ƙarfi mai dorewa, in ji Seitz. Nutrien ya kara karfin potassium da tan miliyan 1 a shekarar 2021 kuma ana sa ran karin adadin zai zo kan layi a shekarar 2022 daga wasu kamfanoni, in ji shi.

"Ba mu tsaya kusa da cewa ba mu yin komai," in ji Seitz, lura da kamfanin ba ya son a bar shi da ƙarin farashi idan kalubalen wadata ya tafi cikin sauri. "Muna gabatar da kundin."

Nutrien ya yi hasashen jigilar potash a duniya zai kasance tsakanin tan miliyan 68 da tan miliyan 71 a shekarar 2022.

• A cikin 2021, da kuma watan da ya gabata, masana'antar potash ta Belorusia ta ɗauki wasu manyan matsaloli. A bara, EU da Amurka sun kakaba takunkumi mai tsanani kan fitar da sinadarin Potash na Belarus, tare da EU haramta da dama daga cikin lambobin samfur na potash ana fitarwa zuwa ƙasashen EU. Amurka a nata bangaren An dakatar da kasuwanci gaba daya tare da manyan kamfanonin potash da dama.
• Lithuania ta kasance a sahun gaba wajen aiwatar da takunkumin, yayin da akasarin kayayyakin da ake fitarwa a Belarus sun bi ta tashar jiragen ruwa ta Klaipeda; Koyaya, babu wata hanya mai sauƙi ga layin dogo na Lithuania don dakatar da zirga-zirgar potash na Belarushiya tare da bin takunkumin Amurka, tun da tuni ya sanya hannu kan kwangilar tsawaita har zuwa 2023 tare da babban katafaren Potash Belaruskali. Gwamnatin Lithuania ta warware wannan ta hanyar karya kwangilar, bisa la’akari da matsalolin tsaron kasa yayin da kuma rage yunƙurin da wasu kamfanoni ke yi na sanya hannu kan wani sabon.

/ kasuwa