Tun da mun riga mun tattauna tsinkaya na karuwar farashin masu samarwa, tambayar da ta rage ita ce, Shin waɗannan haɓakar farashin dole ne su nuna ƙananan riba?
Wannan labarin ya bayyana a cikin fitowar Maris 2022 Dankalin Turawa.
Kuna tuna da na ƙarshe lokacin da kuka ji wannan kamewa na gama gari a cikin 'yan kasuwa: "Dole ne ku kashe kuɗi don samun kuɗi"?
Da kyau, jin waccan magana na iya zama ruwan dare gama gari a cikin shekarar noman 2022, kuma yana iya buƙatar daidaitawa zuwa: "Dole ne ku kashe ƙarin kuɗi don samun kuɗi." Wannan saboda Hukumar Binciken Tattalin Arziki ta USDA (ERS) ta kiyasta cewa kusan duk farashin shigar da gonaki, wanda ya haɗa da iri, wutar lantarki, taki, mai da mai, gyare-gyare da kulawa, aiki, riba, da haya, za su kasance mafi girma ga 2021-22 shekarar amfanin gona fiye da shekarar amfanin gona ta 2020-21.
Maganin kashe kwari shine kawai nau'in shigarwa wanda ba a yi hasashen karuwar shekara zuwa shekara ba. Abubuwan da aka samu tare da mafi girman sauye-sauye daga na ƙarshe zuwa shekarar amfanin gona na yanzu sune taki, tare da haɓaka fiye da 12% kowace shekara; da man fetur da mai, wanda aka kiyasta sama da kashi 32% na karuwa. Ayyukan ERS wanda jimillar kuɗin shigar da noman noma zai ƙaru da fiye da 8% na wannan shekarar amfanin gona idan aka kwatanta da bara. Manufar wannan labarin ita ce tattaunawa game da tasirin ribar wannan sabon, yanayi mai tsada-tsari ga masu noman dankalin turawa na shekarar noman 2022.
Akwai mahimman saƙonnin ɗauka guda uku, kuma muna tattauna kowanne dalla-dalla a ƙasa. Na farko, dangane da hasashen ERS, masu yin dankalin turawa ya kamata su yi tsammanin cewa farashin samar da kayayyaki zai kasance mafi girma a cikin 2022 fiye da 2021. Na biyu, ko waɗannan farashin samar da kayayyaki suna haɓaka al'amura don ribar masana'antu ya dogara da ƙimar farashin dankalin turawa. Na uku, tsarin kasuwancin kowane mutum zai rinjayi ribar gonar dankalin turawa da kuma, musamman, matakin da za a iya samun mafi girman kudaden shiga da/ko tsayayye ko ƙananan farashi ta hanyar kayan aikin sarrafa haɗari kamar kwangiloli.
Farashin yana ƙaruwa
Tun da mun riga mun tattauna hasashen karuwar farashin masu samarwa, tambayar da ta rage ita ce, Shin waɗannan haɓakar farashin dole ne su nuna ƙananan riba? Muna jayayya cewa ba haka lamarin yake ba a ma'ana gabaɗaya saboda ana iya ba da ƙarin farashi ga sauran ƙungiyoyin da ke cikin sarkar samarwa ta hanyar farashin dankalin turawa. Mahimmin sifa mai mahimmanci na kasuwa wanda ke ba da damar farashin da za a wuce tare shine ƙimar farashin buƙata. Abin farin ciki ga masu samar da dankalin turawa, buƙatun dankali ba shi da tsada, tare da darajar -0.6 kamar yadda Richards da Kaiser suka kiyasta.
Akwai muhimman kaddarori guda biyu na wannan ƙididdiga ta elasticity. Na farko, yana da mummunan kuma, sabili da haka ya dace da ka'idar buƙata wanda farashin mafi girma ya dace da ƙananan adadin da ake buƙata (kuma akasin haka). Na biyu, bai wuce 1 ba, wanda ke nufin cewa ga kowane karuwar farashin kashi, adadin da ake buƙata yana raguwa da ƙaramin kashi. A cikin ma'ana ta gaba ɗaya, mafi mahimmancin abin da ke da kyau shine, ƙarin farashin inelastic shine buƙatar sa. Don haka, tun da dankali ne mafi mashahuri kayan lambu a tsakanin masu amfani da Amurka, buƙatun dankali ya fi tsada fiye da na kayan lambu marasa shahara.
Amma shin farashin elasticity na buƙatu yana da ƙarfi don sabbin dillalai, sarrafawa da sassan sabis na abinci na masana'antar dankalin turawa? A cikin ma'ana gabaɗaya, a, amma akwai dalilai don yin imani cewa ba za su kasance daidai da inelastic ba. Richards da Kaiser sun kiyasta cewa elasticity na farashin da ake buƙata don sarrafa dankali yana kusa da na dankalin siyarwa. Koyaya, batutuwan bayanai don sarrafa dankali suna sa elasticity ya fi wahalar kimanta wannan sashin.
Sabbin tallace-tallacen dankalin turawa suna tasiri da farashin dangi na kayan lambu masu maye gurbinsu da abubuwan da suka danganci buƙatun mabukaci kamar samun kudin shiga da yawan jama'a. Tunda samun kudin shiga da yawan jama'a, sabili da haka siyar da sabbin dankalin turawa, na iya canza shekara zuwa shekara zuwa matsayi mafi girma fiye da iya aiki, yana iya yiwuwa sabon buƙatun dillalan dankalin turawa ya fi na sarrafa dankalin turawa. Duk da bambance-bambance a cikin sassan kasuwa, tunda dankali shine mafi yawan kayan lambu da ake amfani da su a Amurka, yanayin buƙatun ƙarancin farashi gabaɗaya ba zai yuwu ya canza ba nan kusa.
Ribar Noma
Tare da wannan mahallin buƙatun ƙarancin farashi, muhimmin abu na gaba don samun riba na 2022 shine halayyar farashin dankalin turawa. Wani muhimmin al'amari na farashin dankalin turawa a Amurka shine matakin samar da dankalin turawa. Wannan yana da yawa saboda yana da tsada don jigilar dankali daga samarwa zuwa yankuna masu sarrafawa, wanda ke nufin cewa samarwa a wasu yankuna masu noman dankalin turawa (har ma a Kanada) ba za a iya maye gurbinsu da arha don samar da gida ba. Don haka, tare da ƙarancin buƙatun farashi da ƴan kayan da za a iya maye gurbinsu da su, raguwar samar da Amurka yana da alaƙa da mafi girman farashi.
Tun da NASS ke kimanta ƙarancin samar da kayayyaki a cikin 2021 dangane da 2020, da alama farashin a 2022 zai yi sama da 2021. Bayanan farashi daga Sabis ɗin Tallan Aikin Noma na USDA (AMS) ya nuna cewa farashin dankalin turawa na Amurka yana ƙaruwa daga Nuwamba zuwa Disamba 2021. Kididdigar farashin tarihi ta nuna cewa farashin yakan karu, a matsakaita, daga Janairu zuwa Afrilu. Don haka, masu sana'ar dankalin turawa na iya tsammanin farashin mafi girma aƙalla farkon watannin farko na 2022. Hadarin motsin farashin ƙasa zai tashi a kusa da Afrilu lokacin da aka san kididdigar yanki na dankali da sauran amfanin gona.
Shin aikin ku zai sami riba a cikin 2022? An ƙayyade wannan tambayar ta wurin matsayin aikinku a cikin sarkar samar da dankalin turawa, da ko kuna siyarwa ga masu siyar da abinci, sabis na abinci ko masu sarrafawa. Kowannen sassan yana da nasa dawowa da bayanin hadarin. Zaɓi tsakanin nau'ikan nau'ikan irin su Burbank da Norkotah, da ikon siyar da kowane nau'in a cikin kowane yanki na sarkar dankalin turawa, na iya yin tasiri ga nasarar tallata dankali a farashin da ake so.
Wani mahimmin abu kuma shine girman da kuma nau'in kwangilar da ake amfani da su. Kwangilar tallace-tallace da ke da ƙayyadaddun farashin tallace-tallace suna rage haɗarin sayarwa lokacin da farashin kasuwannin da ba kwangila ba ya ragu. Koyaya, a cikin wannan lokacin mafi girman farashin shigarwa, kullewa kawai farashin tallace-tallace na iya haifar da ƙarancin riba.
Don haka, muna ba da shawarar masu kera dankalin turawa su yi amfani da wannan lokacin na ƙaruwa mai yawa na farashin shigarwa a matsayin lokacin yin lissafin ayyukan kasuwanci na yanzu. Shin tsarin tallan ku yana ba ku damar dawowar ku da bayanin haɗarin ku? Shin akwai wasu gyare-gyare da za ku iya yi ga tsare-tsaren samar da ku don rage shi cikin haɗarin ƙananan riba idan farashin ya karu a nan gaba? Shin kayan aikin sarrafa haɗari (misali, kwangiloli) a halin yanzu ana amfani da isassun ƙarancin ƙasa da samar da isassun sakamako? Muna fatan wannan lokacin canjin zai iya zama damar yin ko aƙalla la'akari da gyare-gyare masu dacewa.
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